Week 1: Middle East and Europe Risk Planning
The challenge with war and unrest is that it affects events in a big way, locally and globally. Event and business leaders must think of the worst case scenarios and plan for cancellation, postponement and assessing critical dates for go/no go decisions and also manage guest communications to keep them informed around plans and the care being taken.
The travel date may be three months away. That gap between conflict and commitment is where this business earns its keep, managing uncertainty before it becomes a crisis. Business, programs and guest excitement has been building over several months, but safety is always the number one priority.
This is impacting several of our groups traveling through the Middle East to Europe in the coming months. Most of the Middle East today sits under a Level 4 ‘do not travel’ advisory. Other countries in Europe remains at Level 2, where it has been since we started checking. Insurance will not cover new bookings to Level 4 destinations, even if the programs have been in planning for 12 months
The basics are straightforward:
1. There are deposits placed, there are staged commitments at 120, 90 and 60 days out. Contact with key suppliers is important. Assessing the options to maintain win-win for all parties will assure the best result in a very dynamic situation. Postponement protects the parties more than outright cancellation.
2. Force majeure will not help us. Those clauses trigger much closer to travel—when we are already deep in contract penalty territory.
This is what most people do not talk about when they discuss contingency planning. Backup suppliers and alternative venues matter. But what matters more are the contract terms you negotiated six months ago, before any of this looked remotely possible.
This is not about scrambling. It is about using the time we have strategically
Cancelling today achieves nothing. The penalties hold between 25-60% for another few weeks for any mid year travel with the next step up penalty period often under four weeks away so we need to use this time wisely. Monitor DFAT advisories daily. Track insurance positions. Stay close to suppliers then make the call, just before the next step of attrition clauses kick in.
If it improves, we proceed. If it worsens, we cancel, same cost, but with four more weeks of information. Each window buys time to see what develops. Use that time. Do not decide before you must, however be ready.
Negotiating Before You Need It
The only reason we have room to move now is because we push back in favour of client protection on contract terms as part of how we work, before anything goes wrong.
Most suppliers present standard cancellation clauses as non-negotiable: 30 days, 60days, 90 days out. Fixed penalties. Noflexibility. Industry standard. They are negotiable but only before you sign, not when you need them.
We do not accept standard terms. We negotiate better attrition and cancellation provisions with all suppliers, especially the hotels. Can deposits be held as credits instead of forfeited? Can we agree to review dates without penalty? What happens if we need to postpone by six or twelve months?
Some suppliers move significantly in these situations, some move a little. Some don’t budge. But we ask every time, on every contract, before the client commits serious investment.
Prior to signing is when you have leverage. Not when DFAT issues a Level 4 advisory and everyone is nervous.
Postponement Over Cancellation
So for groups currently awaiting decisions for mid year 2026, we have already approached every supplier about postponing options. Most will hold deposits as credits. Some will negotiate on pricing.
European suppliers have been clear: this is not force majeure for them. Most countries are at Level 2, not directly affected.
If we cancel, full contract terms apply. If we postpone, they will negotiate, especially with notice.
The lesson: Start postponement conversations early, while relationships are still good. This industry has been through tough times in the past few years. We are as an industry generally collaborative and want the best for tourism and program success.
What Good Risk Management Actually Looks Like
Most risk management happens after something goes wrong. Real risk management happens at the contract stage. Questions we ask before signing:
1. Where are the cancellation penalty steps and when do they trigger?
2. Can deposits become credits instead of forfeitures?
3. Is force majeure defined in a way that is genuinely useful and mutual?
4. Can we build review points into the agreement, more than standard?
5. What happens in a postponement scenario?
And the most important: What leverage do we have now, before we sign, that we will nothave later?
Where This Leaves Us
Keeping perspective and waiting can be beneficial in unknown times, day by day. Monitor advisories, insurance positions, supplier flexibility and on-ground intelligence from the region.
Protect as much investment as possible and kept options open as long as possible.
None of the options is perfect. But play the time deliberately, not desperately.
What This Means for You
You might not face geopolitical risk. But uncertainty is constant: supplier failures, travel disruptions, budget cuts, leadership changes, the occasional pandemic.
The way you protect against it is not with better Plan B logistics. It is with better Plan A contracts.
Next time you review an event contract, ask:
• When do penalties step up, and can we extend those windows?
• Can deposits become credits if we postpone?
• Is force majeure defined usefully or just decoratively?
• What happens if we need to reduce numbers by 20% and when can we do it?
And the question almost no one asks: If this cannot happen as planned, what would postponement cost?
Because sometimes the answer is not ‘make it run smoothly’, sometimes it is ‘make sure we have real options when things get complicated.